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Optimal Investment Strategies under Demand and Tax Policy Uncertainty

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Author Info

  • Hjalmar Boehm
  • Michael Funke

Abstract

In this paper we offer an analysis of the effects of uncertainty about future tax policy on irreversible investment. The main message of the paper is that investment is not much affected by the degreee of tax policy uncertainty. This is true regardless of whether random tax changes are determined endogenously or exogenously. The paper therefore indicates that reducing tax policy uncertainty is probably no magic bullet to increase private investment spending

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2000/wp-cesifo-2000-07/cesifo_wp311.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 311.

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Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_311

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Related research

Keywords: Investment; uncertainty; irreversibility; taxation;

References

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  1. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  2. Mackie-Mason, Jeffrey K., 1990. "Some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 301-327, August.
  3. Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Maria E. Muniagurría, 1993. "Policy variability and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 30, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999. "The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
  5. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Abel, Andrew B., 1952-, 1995. "Options, the value of capital, and investment," Working papers 3843-95., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Rosanne Altshuler & Harry Grubert & T. Scott Newlon, 2000. "Has U.S. Investment Abroad Become More Sensitive to Tax Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: International Taxation and Multinational Activity, pages 9-38 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1995. "Staggering along: wages policy and investment support in East Germany," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(4), pages 403-426, December.
  10. Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Tax Policy and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  12. Pennings, Enrico, 2000. "Taxes and stimuli of investment under uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 383-391, February.
  13. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  14. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Kanniainen, Vesa & Sodersten, Jan, 1998. "Tax policy uncertainty and corporate investment: A theory of tax-induced investment spurts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 17-48, July.
  16. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
  17. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  18. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June.
  19. Rainer Niemann, 1999. "Neutral Taxation under Uncertainty - a Real Options Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(1), pages 51-66, March.
  20. Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February.
  21. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1995. "Volatility, Investment and Disappointment Aversion," NBER Working Papers 5386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Douglas G. Steigerwald & Charles Stuart, 1997. "Econometric Estimation Of Foresight: Tax Policy And Investment In The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 32-40, February.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2003:i:28:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Rainer Niemann, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2075, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2005. "Asymmetric Taxation under Incremental and Sequential Investment," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 761-779, December.
  4. Niemann, Rainer, 2006. "The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 21, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
  5. Sureth, Caren & Voß, Armin, 2005. "Investitionsbereitschaft und zeitliche Indifferenz bei Realinvestitionen unter Unsicherheit und Steuern," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 2, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
  6. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2001. "Corporate Tax Asymmetries under Investment Irreversibility," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 207-, July.
  7. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax Rate Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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