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Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

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Vivek Ghosal
Prakash Loungani

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates using three different approaches across four currencies and two horizons with 20 years of data. Each approach gives some encouragement that this relationship might hold, but each approach also encounters problems establishing the form or usefulness of the relationship. On balance, this paper contributes to the literature by finding more encouraging results than in earlier studies, but it still remains to be demonstrated that the real exchange rate-real interest rate relationship is the linchpin to explaining exchange rate movements.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 517.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:517

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Keywords: Investments;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1993. "Working Capital and Fixed Investment: New Evidence on Financing Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 328-342, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1989. "Empirical studies of industries with market power," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 1011-1057 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kessides, Ioannis N, 1990. "Market Concentration, Contestability, and Sunk Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 614-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ghosal, Vivek, 1995. "Input Choices under Price Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 142-58, January.
  11. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  12. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1987. "Oligopoly Supergames: Some Empirical Evidence on Prices and Margins," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 379-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty: Keeping One's Options Open," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1816-1831, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Uncertainty, instability, and irreversible investment : theory, evidence, and lessons for Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1722, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Konstantinos Drakos, 2006. "A note on uncertainty and investment across the spectrum of irreversibility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 873-876, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. SHINADA Naoki, 2008. "Corporate Investment and Uncertainty: An empirical analysis," Discussion papers 08033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Toole, Andrew A. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2008. "The R&D Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Do Competition and Firm Size Matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-013, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "Uncertainty Determinants of Firm Investment," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 646, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Sabien Dobbelaere & Roland Iwan Luttens & Bettina Peters, 2009. "Starting an R&D Project under Uncertainty," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-044/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-060/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Timothy Dunne & Xiaoyi Mu, 2008. "Investment spikes and uncertainty in the petroleum refining industry," Working Paper 0805, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 638, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Serven, Luis, 1998. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in developing countries - an empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2035, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Investigating the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20008, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dennis W. Carlton, 1996. "A Critical Assessment of the Role of Imperfect Competition in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 5782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Boehm, Hjalmar & Funke, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Investment Strategies under Demand and Tax Policy Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 1999. "The Uncertainty-Investment Relationship," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19903, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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