On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty
Abstract
We investigate the analytical and empirical linkages between cash flow, uncertainty, and firms' capital investment behavior. Our empirical approach constructs measures of own- and market-specific uncertainty from firms' daily stock returns and S&P 500 index returns along with a CAPM-based risk measure. Our results indicate that even in the presence of important firm-specific variables, uncertainty is an important determinant of firms' investment behavior. Depending on the measure of uncertainty used, investment may be stimulated or curtailed by the effects of uncertainty on its own or through its interactions on cash flow. Copyright 2010 Oxford University Press 2009 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 62 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 286-306
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Email:
Web page: http://oep.oupjournals.org/
Order Information:
Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 638, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Apr 2008.
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993.
"Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure,"
NBER Working Papers
4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
- Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure," Working Papers 93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February.
- Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," Papers 289, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2000. "Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 491-514, July.
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998.
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1996.
"Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using UK Panel Data,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
312., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
- Beaudry, P. & Caglayan, M. & Schiantarelli, F., 1996. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using UK Panel Data," UBC Departmental Archives 96-04, UBC Department of Economics.
- William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
- Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
- Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996.
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
- John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," NBER Working Papers 4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, .
"A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
14-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
- Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Inessa Love, 2003.
"Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
- Love, Inessa, 2001. "Financial development and financing constraints - international evidence from the structural investment model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2694, The World Bank.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993.
"Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Solimano, Andres, 1993. "Economic instability and aggregate investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1148, The World Bank.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Solimano, Andrés., 1993. "Economic instability and aggregate investment," Working papers 3552-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006.
"Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-19, CIRANO.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000.
"Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
- Steve Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004.
"The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment,"
IFS Working Papers
W04/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Bank of England working papers 222, Bank of England.
- Vlieghe, Gertjan & Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed, 2003. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 212, Royal Economic Society.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003.
"Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps,"
Economics Papers
2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997.
"Aggregate Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
- Cabalero, R.J., 1997. "Aggregaete Investment," Working papers 97-20, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
- Allayannis, George & Weston, James P, 2001. "The Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives and Firm Market Value," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 243-76.
- Eberly, Janice C. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 1997. "Multi-factor Dynamic Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 345-387, August.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995.
"Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
517, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June.
- Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-deSilanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1999.
"Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation,"
NBER Working Papers
7403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rafael La porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2002. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1147-1170, 06.
- Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1999. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1882, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980.
"On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November.
- Hurn, A S & Wright, Robert E, 1994. "Geology or Economics? Testing Models of Irreversible Investment Using North Sea Oil Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 363-71, March.
- William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven, 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 43-104.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Minton, Bernadette A. & Schrand, Catherine, 1999. "The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 423-460, December.
- Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
- Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Demir, Firat & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2012. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance and Export Orientation," MPRA Paper 37397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2012. "Dynamic Co-movements between Stock Market Returns and Policy Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 42905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abdul Rashid, 2011. "How does private firms' investment respond to uncertainty?: Some evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 339-347, August.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:62:y:2010:i:2:p:286-306For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

