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The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment

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Author Info
Vlieghe, Gertjan (Bank of England)
Stephen Bond
Alexander Klemm
Rain Newton-Smith
Murtaza Syed

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Abstract

Evidence that cash flow has a significant effect on investment after controlling for Tobin's average Q has been interpreted as suggesting the importance of financing constraints. Recent work shows that the Q model may not be identified if there are `bubbles' in stock market valuations that are persistent and correlated with fundamental values. Cash flow may then provide additional information about expected profitability that is not captured by average Q. Using data on UK companies, we find severe measurement error in average Q. We find that cash flow becomes insignificant after controlling for expected profitability using analysts' earnings forecasts (I/B/E/S).

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 212.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:212

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Keywords: panel data investment financing constraints Q Model share prices

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  5. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 7659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 2001. "Exhuming Q: Market Power vs. Capital Market Imperfections," NBER Working Papers 8182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Toni M. Whited, 1990. "Debt, liquidity constraints, and corporate investment: evidence from panel data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  18. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998. "Investment, Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Working Papers 6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1999. "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," NBER Reprints 1946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Michael Devereux & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1989. "Investment, Finacial Factors and Cash Flow: Evidence From UK Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 3116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Nickell, Stephen & Nicolitsas, Daphne, 1999. "How does financial pressure affect firms?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1435-1456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, . "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 189, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Rozália Pál & Roman Kozhan, 2006. "Firms' investment under financing constraints. An euro area investigation," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0606, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, revised 21 Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
    Other versions:
  5. Annalisa Ferrando & Rozália Pál, 2006. "Financing constraints and firms’ cash policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 642, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephen Millard & John Power, . "The effects of stock market movements on consumption and investment: does the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 236, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gianni La Cava, 2005. "Financial Constraints, the User Cost of Capital and Corporate Investment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-12, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," Working Papers 0601, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Steve Bond & Michael Devereux & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "Dissecting dividend decisions: some clues about the effects of dividend taxation from recent UK reforms," IFS Working Papers W05/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrea Caggese, 2003. "Testing Financing Constraints on Firm Investment using Variable Capital," Economics Working Papers 1009, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Philip Bunn & Kamakshya Trivedi, . "Corporate expenditures and pension contributions: evidence from UK company accounts," Bank of England working papers 276, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 638, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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