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Noisy share prices and the Q model of investment

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Author Info
Steve Bond () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Nuffield College, Oxford)
Jason Cummins

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Abstract

We consider to what extent the empirical failings of the Q model of investment can be attributed to the use of share prices to measure average q. We show that the usual empirical formulation may fail to identify the Q model when stock market valuations deviate from the present value of expected net distributions in ways that are consistent with weak and semi-strong forms of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. We show that the structural parameters of the Q model can stil be identified in this case using a direct estimate of the firm's fundamental value, and implement this using data on securities analysts' earnings forecasts for a large sample of publicly traded US firms. Our empirical results suggest that stock market valuations deviate significantly from fundamental values. Controlling for this, we find no evidence that the Q model of investment is seriously misspecified.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W01/22.

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Length: 38 pp
Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:01/22

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2007. "FDI and credit constraints : firm level evidence in China," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne bla07009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Steve Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," IFS Working Papers W04/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "A new approach to the valuation of intangible capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Abdul Abiad & Nienke Oomes & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "The Quality Effect: Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Capital?," IMF Working Papers 04/112, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stoneman, Paul, 2001. "Technological Diffusion and the Financial Environment," EIFC - Technology and Finance Working Papers 3, United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies. [Downloadable!]
  7. Paul Mizen & Philip Vermeulen, 2005. "Corporate investment and cash flow sensitivity - what drives the relationship?," Working Paper Series 485, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Wendy Carlin & Andrew Charlton & Colin Mayer, 2008. "Multinational Ownership and Subsidiary Investment," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. O. De Jonghe & R. Vander Vennet, 2007. "Competition versus Efficiency: What drives franchise values in European banking?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/491, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg & Gur Huberman, 2004. "Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?," NBER Working Papers 10537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Steve Bond & Michael Devereux & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "Dissecting dividend decisions: some clues about the effects of dividend taxation from recent UK reforms," IFS Working Papers W05/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  13. Pierre Lafourcade, 2003. "Asset prices and rents in a GE model with imperfect competition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 06/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Pierre Lafourcade, 2004. "Valuation, investment and the pure profit share," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Guido Lorenzoni & Karl Walentin, 2007. "Financial Frictions, Investment and Tobin's q," NBER Working Papers 13092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Stephen Bond & Dietmar Harhoff & John Van Reenen, 2003. "Investment, R&D and Financial Constraints in Britain and Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp0595, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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