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Fundamentals, Financial Factors and The Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Tuomas A. Peltonen () (European Central Bank)
Ricardo M. Sousa () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Isabel S. Vansteenkiste () (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

The paper uses a Panel Vector Auto-Regression (PVAR) approach to analyze the shortrun adjustment of private investment to shocks to fundamental and financial factors in emerging market economies. By relying on a panel of 31 emerging economies and quarterly frequency data for the period 1990:1-2008:3, we show that: (i) investment sluggishly adjusts to its own shocks; (ii) GDP and equity price shocks have a positive and sizeable impact on investment; (iii) unexpected variation in the cost of capital and the lending rate has a negative (although economically small) effect on investment; and (iv) the response of investment to credit market developments seems to be driven by the demand side. In addition, the empirical evidence suggests that the effects of equity price shocks are similar for emerging Asia and Latin America, but credit shocks are more important in Latin America. Moreover, shocks to the lending rate have a very pronounced and negative impact in emerging European markets. Finally, we show that the stock market bubbles may have encouraged real investment during the nineties.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 19/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:19/2009

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Related research
Keywords: fundamentals; financial factors; investment; emerging markets; panel VAR.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity

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