Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour
AbstractThis paper estimates an equilibrium model of stock price behaviour in which changes in exponentially de-trended dividends and prices are normally distributed and exogenous "noise traders" interact with "smart-money" investors who have constant absolute risk aversion. The model can explain the volatility and predictability of U.S. stock returns in the period 1871-1986 using either a low discount rate (4% or below) and a large constant risk discount on the stock price, or a higher discount rate (5% or above) and noise trading correlated with fundamentals. The data are not well able to distinguish between these explanations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3208217.
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Studies
Other versions of this item:
- Campbell, John Y & Kyle, Albert S, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, January.
- John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Kyle, A.S., 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading And Stock Price Behavior," Papers 95, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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