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The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment

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Author Info
Christopher Polk
Paola Sapienza

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Abstract

We study how stock market mispricing might influence individual firms' investment decisions. We find a positive relation between investment and a number of proxies for mispricing, controlling for investment opportunities and financial slack, suggesting that overpriced (underpriced) firms tend to overinvest (underinvest). Consistent with the predictions of our model, we find that investment is more sensitive to our mispricing proxies for firms with higher R&D intensity suggesting longer periods of information asymmetry and thus mispricing) or share turnover (suggesting that the firms' shareholders are short-term investors). We also find that firms with relatively high (low) investment subsequently have relatively low (high) stock returns, after controlling for investment opportunities and other characteristics linked to return predictability. These patterns are stronger for firms with higher R&D intensity or higher share turnover.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10563.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10563

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2006. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 12087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg & Gur Huberman, 2004. "Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?," NBER Working Papers 10537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. MING DONG & David Hirshleifer & SCOTT RICHARSON & Siew Hong Teoh, 2004. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Finance 0412002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants," NBER Working Papers 10999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 2004. "Feedback and the Success of Irrational Investors," Working Paper Series 2004-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Neves, Elisabete & Pindado, Julio & Torre, Chabela de la, 2006. "Dividends: New evidence on the catering theory," Documentos de Trabajo "Nuevas Tendencias en Dirección de Empresas". Working Papers "New Trends on Business Administration". 2006-14, Interuniversitary Doctorate Program "New Trends on Business Administration", Universities of Valladolid, Burgos and Salamanca (Spain). Programa de Doctorado Interuniversitario "Nuevas Tendencias en Di. [Downloadable!]
  12. Malcolm Baker & C. Fritz Foley & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "The Stock Market and Investment: Evidence from FDI Flows," NBER Working Papers 10559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert Chirinko & Hisham Foad, 2006. "Noise vs. News in Equity Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Optimal Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 12014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kothari, S.P. & Loutskina, Elena & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2006. "Agency theory of overvalued equity as an explanation for the accrual anomaly," Discussion Paper 103, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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