Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Charles P. Himmelberg
  • Gur Huberman

Abstract

Building on recent developments in behavioral asset pricing, we develop a model in which an increase in the dispersion of investor beliefs under short-selling constraints predicts a "bubble," or a rise in a stock's price above its fundamental value. Our model predicts that managers respond to bubbles by issuing new equity and increasing capital expenditures. We test these predictions, as well as others, using the variance of analysts' earnings forecasts-a proxy for the dispersion of investor beliefs-to identify the bubble component in Tobin's Q. ; When comparing firms traded on the New York Stock Exchange with those traded on NASDAQ, we find that our model successfully captures key features of the technology boom of the 1990s. We obtain further evidence supporting our model by using a panel-data VAR framework. We find that orthogonalized shocks to dispersion have positive and statistically significant effects on Tobin's Q, net equity issuance, and real investment-results that are consistent with the model's predictions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr177.html
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr177.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 177.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:177

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001
Email:
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/

Related research

Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Corporations - Finance ; Stock exchanges ; Asset pricing ; Investments;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  3. Jeremy C. Stein, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," NBER Working Papers 5496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cheolbeom Park, 2001. "Stock Returns and the Dispersion in Earnings Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers wp0117, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  6. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1990. "Large-block transactions, the speed of response, and temporary and permanent stock-price effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-95, July.
  7. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1990. "The Stock Market, Profit and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does The Market Matter? Stock Prices And The Investment Of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005, August.
  10. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. " Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 31-48, March.
  11. Bagwell, Laurie Simon, 1992. " Dutch Auction Repurchases: An Analysis of Shareholder Heterogeneity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 71-105, March.
  12. Bertrand, Marianne & Schoar, Antoinette, 2003. "Managing With Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," Working papers 4280-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  13. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Steve Bond & Jason Cummins, 2001. "Noisy share prices and the Q model of investment," IFS Working Papers W01/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  15. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
  16. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2004. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 10807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gur Huberman & Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 2004. "Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?," 2004 Meeting Papers 147, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
  20. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, 02.
  21. Gur Huberman, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, 02.
  22. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David Jr., 1986. "Equity issues and offering dilution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 61-89.
  23. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
  24. Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 1993. "Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: a multiple equation testing strategy," Research Working Paper 93-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  26. Huntley Schaller & Robert S. Chirinko, 1995. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": the Japanese Case," Carleton Economic Papers 95-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
  27. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  28. Charles M. Jones & Owen A. Lamont, 2001. "Short Sale Constraints and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  30. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
  31. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2004. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 10563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
  33. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
  34. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
  35. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  36. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
  37. D'Avolio, Gene, 2002. "The market for borrowing stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 271-306.
  38. Loderer, Claudio & Cooney, John W & van Drunen, Leonard D, 1991. " The Price Elasticity of Demand for Common Stock," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 621-51, June.
  39. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
  40. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  41. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.