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Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": the Japanese Case

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Abstract

The two key questions which motivate our work are: do bubbles exist (in the sense that stock market prices do not always correspond to the present value of expected future profitability) and, if bubbles exist, do they have an effect on business fixed investment? The case of Japan is particularly interesting because of the dramatic movements in the Japanese stock market and the wide perception that these were associated with a bubble. We use a variety of techniques to analyse these questions. First, we examine financing and investment patterns to gauge firms' reactions to the 1980s stock market run-up. Second, we test subsets of the orthogonality conditions associated with the empirical first-order conditions for fixed investment. Third, we use the linear projection to decompose stock market prices into fundamental and bubble components, allowing us to carry out parametric estimates of the effect of the bubble component on fixed investment. The data strongly suggest that there was a bubble that had an economically important statistically significant effect on business fixed investment in Japan.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 95-13.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1995
Date of revision: 2001
Publication status: Published: – revised version in American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 3 (June 2001), pp. 663–680
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:95-13

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Keywords: investment; financial market; bubbles;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. De Santis, Roberto A. & Anderton, Robert & Hijzen, Alexander, 2004. "On the determinants of euro area FDI to the United States: the knowledge- capital-Tobin's Q framework," Working Paper Series 0329, European Central Bank.
  3. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Malcolm Baker & C. Fritz Foley & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "The Stock Market and Investment: Evidence from FDI Flows," NBER Working Papers 10559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Huberman, Gur, 2005. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 805-827, May.
  6. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investsment of Equity-Dependent Firms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1978, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants," NBER Working Papers 10999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2011. "Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment?: A Revealed Preference Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3491, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. John Conlon, 2005. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?," Game Theory and Information 0508007, EconWPA.
  10. Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
  11. Bo, H. & Lensink, R., 2000. "Is the investment-uncertainty relationship non-linear? : an emperical [i.e. empirical] analysis for the Netherlands," Research Report 00E44, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  12. John R. Conlon, 2008. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002330, David K. Levine.
  13. Zhiwei Xu & Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2013. "A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles," 2013 Meeting Papers 167, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
  15. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2012. "Real Effects of Stock Underpricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 8820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Dekle, Robert & Henderson, Dale & Thomas, Sebastian, 2000. "The stock market, fundamentals, cash flow, and private investment: evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 295-310, December.
  17. Gordon Menzies & Ron Bird & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Asset Price Regulators, Unite: You have the Macroeconomy to Win and the Microeconomic Losses are Small," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 449-464, 09.

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