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Fads or Bubbles?

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Author Info
Huntley Schaller
Simon van Norden

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Abstract

This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns. By incorporating state-dependent heteroscedasticity into the Cutler, Poterba, and Summers (1991) fads model, we show that it can also lead to regime-switching. Two main features of the bubbles model distinguish it from the fads model. First, the bubbles model implies that returns are drawn from two distinct regimes. Second, the bubbles model implies that deviations from fundamental price will help predict regime switches. Using U.S. data for 1926-89, we find evidence that is consistent with the fads model even when we allow for variation in expected dividend growth rates and expected discount rates. However, the restrictions that the fads model implies for a more general switching model are rejected. The rejections point in the direction of the bubbles model, although not all the implications of the bubbles model are supported by the data.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 97-2.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:97-2

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Keywords: FINANCIAL MARKET ;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362. [Downloadable!]
  2. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "The rise in Dublin city house prices: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n920799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Mesures du taux d'inflation tendanciel," Working Papers 97-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  5. Manzan, S., 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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