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Stock Market Volatility and Investment: Do Only Fundamentals Matter?

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Author Info
Galeotti, Marzio
Schiantarelli, Fabio

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Abstract

The empirical evidence in the volatility literature suggests that movements in stock prices cannot be satisfactorily explained purely in terms of changes in fundamentals. This paper shows how to obtain proxies for the fundamental and fad components of changes in stock prices and asks the question: Do only fundamentals matter for investment decisions? We find that changes in investment are significantly associated with movements in both components of stock prices. The point estimates suggest that changes in fundamentals have a greater effect than changes in non-fundamentals. The statistical significance of the difference between their coefficients depends upon the financing regime. These conclusions are shown to be robust to modifications and extensions of the model. Copyright 1994 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 61 (1994)
Issue (Month): 242 (May)
Pages: 147-65
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:61:y:1994:i:242:p:147-65

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1989. "Corporate structure, liquidity, and investment: evidence from Japanese industrial groups," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  3. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1975-2), pages 527-300. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-1), pages 67-140. [Downloadable!]
  8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessandra Del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Paola Rota, 2003. "Non-convexities in the Adjustment of Different Capital Inputs: A Firm-level Investigation," Working Papers 2003.35, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Demir, Firat, 2007. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in developing countries: A review," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Asset prices, Credit and Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 18/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors and The Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 19/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  5. Goyal, Vidhan K. & Yamada, Takeshi, 2002. "Asset Price Shocks, Financial Constraints, and Investment: Evidence from Japan," CEI Working Paper Series 2002-11, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hali J. Edison & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "New Economy Stock Valuations and Investmen in the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 01/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Fads or Bubbles?," Econometrics 9502004, EconWPA, revised 06 Jun 1995. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Working Papers 96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  9. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hali Edison & Torsten Sløk, 2003. "The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1015-1023, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Steve Bond & Jason Cummins, 2001. "Noisy share prices and the Q model of investment," IFS Working Papers W01/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1990. "The Stock Market, Profit and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Gregory R. Duffee & Steven D. Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2001. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 663-680, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Stock market and investment : the signaling role of the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1612, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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