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The Stock Market and Investment: Evidence from FDI Flows

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Author Info
Malcolm Baker
C. Fritz Foley
Jeffrey Wurgler

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Abstract

Foreign direct investment offers a rich laboratory in which to study the broader economic effects of securities market mispricing. We outline and test two mispricing-based theories of FDI. The cheap assets' or fire-sale theory views FDI inflows as the purchase of undervalued host country assets, while the cheap capital' theory views FDI outflows as a natural use of the relatively lowcost capital available to overvalued firms in the source country. The empirical results support the cheap capital view: FDI flows are unrelated to host country stock market valuations, as measured by the aggregate market-to-book-value ratio, but are strongly positively related to source country valuations and negatively related to future source country stock returns. The latter effects are most pronounced in the presence of capital account restrictions, suggesting that such restrictions limit cross-country arbitrage and thereby increase the potential for mispricing-driven FDI.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10559.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10559

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G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massa, Massimo & Peyer, Urs & Tong, Zhenxu, 2005. "Limits of Arbitrage and Corporate Financial Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chiara Criscuolo & Ralf Martin, 2005. "Multinationals and US Productivity Leadership: Evidence from Great Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0672, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2004. "Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 10990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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