IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/11372.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch

Author

Listed:
  • Kristin J. Forbes

Abstract

Macroeconomic analyses of capital controls face a number of imposing challenges and have yielded mixed results to date. This paper takes a different approach and surveys an emerging literature that evaluates various microeconomic effects of capital controls and capital account liberalization. Several key themes emerge. First, capital controls tend to reduce the supply of capital, raise the cost of financing, and increase financial constraints - especially for smaller firms, firms without access to international capital markets and firms without access to preferential lending. Second, capital controls can reduce market discipline in financial markets and the government, leading to a more inefficient allocation of capital and resources. Third, capital controls significantly distort decision-making by firms and individuals, as they attempt to minimize the costs of the controls or even evade them outright. Fourth, the effects of capital controls can vary across different types of firms and countries, reflecting different pre-existing economic distortions. Finally, capital controls can be difficult and costly to enforce, even in countries with sound institutions and low levels of corruption. This microeconomic evidence on capital controls suggests that they have pervasive effects and often generate unexpected costs. Capital controls are no free lunch.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11372
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11372.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    2. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    3. Shang-Jin Wei & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2002/174, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kan Li & Randall Morck & Fan Yang & Bernard Yeung, 2004. "Firm-Specific Variation and Openness in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 658-669, August.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    6. Galindo, Arturo & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Weiss, Andrew, 2007. "Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of investment?: Micro-evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 562-587, July.
    7. Prakash Loungani & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "Capital Flight from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 689-706, May.
    8. Abiad, Abdul & Oomes, Nienke & Ueda, Kenichi, 2008. "The quality effect: Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of capital?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 270-282, October.
    9. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    11. Michael W. Klein & Giovanni Olivei, 1999. "Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 7384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    13. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 645-674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Jorge Desormeaux & Claudio González, 2002. "Capital Markets in Chile: From Financial Repression to Financial Deepening," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 04, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    16. Luc Laeven, 2002. "Does Financial Liberalization Reduce Financing Constraints?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(4), Winter.
    17. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    18. Ann E. Harrison & Inessa Love & Margaret S. McMillan, 2022. "Global capital flows and financing constraints," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 8, pages 181-213, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    20. Melvin, Michael, 2003. "A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 129-136, October.
    21. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    22. Schmukler,Sergio L. & Versperoni,Esteban, 2000. "Globalization and firms'financing choices - evidence from emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2323, The World Bank.
    23. Helmut Reisen & Marcelo Soto, 2001. "Which Types of Capital Inflows Foster Developing‐Country Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14.
    24. Levine, Ross & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2003. "Migration, spillovers, and trade diversion : the impact of internationalization on stock market liquidity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3046, The World Bank.
    25. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
    26. Haramillo, Fidel & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Weiss, Andrew, 1996. "Capital market imperfections before and after financial liberalization: An Euler equation approach to panel data for Ecuadorian firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 367-386, December.
    27. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    28. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Forbes, Kristin J., 2007. "One cost of the Chilean capital controls: Increased financial constraints for smaller traded firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 294-323, April.
    30. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    31. Stanley Fischer, 2003. "Globalization and Its Challenges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 1-30, May.
    32. Francisco Gallego Y. & Norman Loayza., 2000. "Financial Structure in Chile: Macroeconomic Developments and Microeconomic Effects," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(2), pages 5-30, August.
    33. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Francisco A. Gallego & F. Leonardo Hernández, 2003. "Microeconomic effects of capital controls: The chilean experience during the 1990s," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 225-253.
    35. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-2.
    36. Mr. Marco Rossi, 1999. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies: Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1999/066, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. R. B. Johnston, 1998. "Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?," IMF Working Papers 1998/181, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1998. "Law, Finance, and Firm Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2107-2137, December.
    39. Malcolm Baker & C. Fritz Foley & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "The Stock Market and Investment: Evidence from FDI Flows," NBER Working Papers 10559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    41. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    42. Peter Blair Henry & Peter Lombard Lorentzen, 2003. "Domestic Capital Market Reform and Access to Global Finance: Making Markets Work," NBER Working Papers 10064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Jorge Desormeaux & Claudio González, 2002. "Capital markets in Chile: from financial repression to financial deepening," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 86-102, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Harris, John R & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Siregar, Miranda G, 1994. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Capital Structure and Investment Decisions of Indonesian Manufacturing Establishments," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(1), pages 17-47, January.
    45. Francisco Gallego & Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 1999. "Capital Controls in Chile: Effective? Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 59, Central Bank of Chile.
    46. Mr. Akira Ariyoshi & Mr. Andrei A Kirilenko & Ms. Inci Ötker & Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mr. Karl F Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/009, International Monetary Fund.
    47. A. Abalkin & J. Whalley, 1999. "The Problem of Capital Flight from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 421-444, May.
    48. Sebastian Auguste & Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Herman Kamil & Linda L. Tesar, 2002. "Cross-Border Trading as a Mechanism for Capital Flight: ADRs and the Argentine Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 513, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    49. Vladimir Tikhomirov, 1997. "Capital flight from post‐Soviet Russia," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 591-615.
    50. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
    51. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    52. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    53. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1295-1324, June.
    55. Jaramillo, Fidel & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Weiss, Andrew, 1993. "The effect of financial liberalization on allocation of credit : panel data evidence for Ecuador," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1092, The World Bank.
    56. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Capital Flows and Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550598, December.
    57. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines, 2006. "Capital Controls, Liberalizations, and Foreign Direct Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1433-1464.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    2. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Forbes, Kristin J., 2007. "One cost of the Chilean capital controls: Increased financial constraints for smaller traded firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 294-323, April.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    6. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    7. Benfratello, Luigi & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 2008. "Banks and innovation: Microeconometric evidence on Italian firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 197-217, November.
    8. Christiansen, Lone & Schindler, Martin & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "Growth and structural reforms: A new assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-356.
    9. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    10. Galindo, Arturo & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Weiss, Andrew, 2007. "Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of investment?: Micro-evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 562-587, July.
    11. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    12. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    16. April M. Knill, 2013. "Does Foreign Portfolio Investment Reach Small Listed Firms?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(2), pages 251-303, March.
    17. Ann E. Harrison & Inessa Love & Margaret S. McMillan, 2022. "Global capital flows and financing constraints," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 8, pages 181-213, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Arturo Galindo & Fabio Schiantarelli & Andrew Weiss, 2002. "¿Mejora la apertura financiera la asignación de la inversión? Elementos de juicio a nivel micro de países en desarrollo," Research Department Publications 4296, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, October.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2011. "Financial Openness and Productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.