Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation
Abstract
Research on the macroeconomic impact of capital account liberalization finds few, if any, robust effects of liberalization on real variables. In contrast to the prevailing wisdom, I argue that the textbook theory of liberalization holds up quite well to a critical reading of this literature. Most papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables tell us nothing about the empirical validity of the theory because they do not really test it. This paper explains why it is that most studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. It also discusses what is necessary to test the theory and examines papers that have done so. Studies that actually test the theory show that liberalization has significant effects on the cost of capital, investment, and economic growth.Download Info
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Literature.
Volume (Year): 45 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 887-935
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jel.45.4.887
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Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Henry, Peter B., 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1974, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Capital account liberalization: theory, evidence, and speculation," Working Paper Series 2007-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1951, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
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