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Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets

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  • Geert Bekaert
  • Campbell R. Harvey

Abstract

A number of countries have delayed the opening of their capital markets to international" investment because of reservations about the impact of foreign speculators on both expected" returns and market volatility. We propose a cross-sectional time-series model that attempts to" assess the impact of market liberalizations, in the form of the offering of depositary receipts country funds and other financial instruments, in an extranational market and market volatility in emerging equity markets. We also examine the impact of capital market" liberalizations on the correlation of emerging equity market returns and the world market return. " Our empirical approach is designed to control for other economic events which might confound" the impact of foreign speculators on local equity markets. Whatever the empirical specification the cost of capital always decreases after a capital market liberalization but the effect is" economically and statistically weak. The effects on volatility and correlation are less robust."

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6312.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Publication status: published as Journal of Finance, Vol. 55 (April 2000): 565-613.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6312

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  1. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. " Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1059-85, July.
  2. Newbery, David M, 1987. "When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 291-97, June.
  3. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Korajczyk, Robert A., 1995. "A measure of stock market integration for developed and emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1482, The World Bank.
  5. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  9. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1998. "Dating the Integration of World Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Geert Bekaert & Michael S. Urias, 1995. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 4990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  13. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets," IMF Working Papers 96/29, International Monetary Fund.
  16. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stephen R. Foerster & G. Andrew Karolyi, . "The Effects of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices: Evidence from Foreign Stocks Listing in the US," Research in Financial Economics 9606, Ohio State University.
  18. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Grossman, Sanford J, 1995. " Dynamic Asset Allocation and the Informational Efficiency of Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 773-87, July.
  20. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 75-138.
  21. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  24. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
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