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Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility

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G. William Schwert

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Abstract

This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence reinforces the notion that stock prices are an important business cycle indicator. Using two different statistical models for stock volatility, I show that volatility increases after major financial crises. Moreover. stock volatility decreases and stock prices rise before the Fed increases margin requirements. Thus, there is little reason to believe that public policies can control stock volatility. The evidence supports the observation by Black [1976] that stock volatility increases after stock prices fall.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2957.

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Date of creation: Mar 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2957

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  1. Gorton, Gary, 1985. "Bank suspension of convertibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-193, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Fads or Bubbles?," Econometrics 9502004, EconWPA, revised 06 Jun 1995. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Tobias Adrian & Joshua Rosenberg, 2006. "Stock returns and volatility: pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk," Staff Reports 254, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Amigo Dobaño, Lucy, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis: Exchange Rate Markets Of The European Monetary System," ERSA conference papers ersa00p270, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  5. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "Why was Stock Market Volatility so High During the Great Depression? Evidence from 10 Countries During the Interwar Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 3254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland Shami, 2003. "Association between Markov regime-switching market volatility and beta risk: Evidence from Dow Jones industrial serurities," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. William O. Brown & Richard C. K. Burdekin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2005. "Volatility in an Era of Reduced Uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," NBER Working Papers 11319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1990. "Testing Covariance Stationarity Under Moment Condition Failure with an Application to Common Stock Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 947, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Christian Dunis & Jason Laws & Stéphane Chauvin, 2003. "FX volatility forecasts and the informational content of market data for volatility," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-272, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hui Guo, 2002. "Stock market returns, volatility, and future output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 75-86. [Downloadable!]
  16. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," NBER Working Papers 2954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Rumi Masih & A. Mansur Masih, 2004. "Common stochastic trends and the dynamic linkages driving european stock markets: evidence from pre- and post-october 1987 crash eras," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 81-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont. [Downloadable!]
  20. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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  21. James Morley, 2000. "Is There a Positive Intertemporal Tradeoff Between Risk and Return After All?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0915, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  22. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0011, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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