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Business Cycles, Financial Crises And Stock Volatility

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Author Info

  • SCHWERT, G.W.

Abstract

This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence reinforces the notion that stock prices are an important business cycle indicator. Using two different statistical models for stock volatility, I show that volatility increases after major financial crises. Moreover. stock volatility decreases and stock prices rise before the Fed increases margin requirements. Thus, there is little reason to believe that public policies can control stock volatility. The evidence supports the observation by Black [1976] that stock volatility increases after stock prices fall.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rochester, Business - General in its series Papers with number 88-06.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:robuge:88-06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER, CENTER FOR MANUFACTURING AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, WILLIAM E. SIMON GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION,
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Web page: http://www.simon.rochester.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: business cycles ; financial market ; capital movements ; prices;

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References

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  1. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  3. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  5. Gorton, Gary, 1985. "Bank suspension of convertibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-193, March.
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