Equity risk premium and time horizon: what do the U.S. secular data say?
AbstractWe consider a representative investor whose wealth is made up of the equity market portfolio and the riskless asset, and who maximizes the expected utility of his/her future wealth for a given horizon. The solution of this program shows that the equilibrium value of the equity risk premium â the latter being measured by the difference between the expected equity portfolio return and the risk-free interest rate â is given by the product of the price of risk by the expected variance of stock returns. When returns are predictable, these two magnitudes are both time-varying and horizon-dependent. In accordance with this theoretical framework, our paper presents an econometric model of the equity risk premia for two traditional horizons: the one-period-ahead horizon (i.e. the âshort-termâ premium) and the infinite-time horizon (i.e. the âlong-termâ premium). Using annual US secular data from 1871 to 2008, and representing the expected returns by mixing the three traditional adaptive, extrapolative and regressive processes, large disparities in the dynamics of the two premia are evidenced. Concerning the determination of the equilibrium values of the two premia, the expected variances depend on the past values of the centered squared returns while the prices of risk (unobservable variables) are estimated according to the Kalman filter methodology, which enables us to capture the influence of hidden variables and of non-directly measurable psychological effects. A spread of interest rates adds to this determination. Possibly due to risky arbitrage and transaction costs, the results show that observed premia gradually converge towards their equilibrium values, this process being described by an error correction model. Overall, our model provides a rather satisfactory representation of âshort-termâ and âlong-termâ premia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 12-06.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
- Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
- Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995.
"Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
- Dokko, Yoon & Edelstein, Robert H, 1989. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 865-71, September.
- Georges Prat, 2007.
"Les comportements boursiers sont-ils eulériens?,"
- Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Giulio Bottazzi, 2004. "Asset Pricing Model with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons," LEM Papers Series 2004/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Fernandez, Pablo, 2006. "Equity premium: Historical, expected, required and implied," IESE Research Papers D/661, IESE Business School.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- The psychology of the equity risk premium
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-01-12 15:03:00
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karine Pellier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.