This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Bekaert, Geert
Harvey, Campbell
Lundblad, Christian T.

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that our liquidity measures significantly predict future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and time periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not fully eliminated its impact.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5946.asp
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5946.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5946

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: emerging markets; liquidity pricing; return predictability;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Atje, Raymond & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1993. "Stock markets and development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 632-640, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    Other versions:
  11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. G. Karolyi, 2006. "The World of Cross-Listings and Cross-Listings of the World: Challenging Conventional Wisdom," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 99-152, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2001. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume Under Fixed Transactions Costs," NBER Working Papers 8311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2006. "The World of Cross-Listings and Cross-Listings of the World: Challenging Conventional Wisdom," Review of Finance, Oxford University Press for European Finance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 99-152. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Biais, Bruno, 1993. " Price Information and Equilibrium Liquidity in Fragmented and Centralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 157-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "LAPM: A Liquidity Based Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 98-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  24. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  26. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Tarun Chordia, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2), pages 269-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 1993. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Issues in assessing trade execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 233-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. Ahn, Seung C. & Gadarowski, Christopher, 2004. "Small sample properties of the GMM specification test based on the Hansen-Jagannathan distance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 109-132, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Loderer, Claudio & Roth, Lukas, 2005. "The pricing discount for limited liquidity: evidence from SWX Swiss Exchange and the Nasdaq," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 239-268, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Huberman, G. & Halka, D., 1999. "Systematic Liquidity," Papers 99-9, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  41. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  42. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  43. Koren Miklós & Szeidl Ádám, 2002. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Rajk László Szakkollégium Working Papers 6, Rajk László College. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  44. Wang, Jiang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 249-82, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  45. Andrea L. Eisfeldt, 2004. "Endogenous Liquidity in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 1-30, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  46. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  47. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  48. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. " Statistical Properties of the Roll Serial Covariance Bid/Ask Spread Estimator," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 579-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  49. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  50. Martinez, Miguel A. & Nieto, Belen & Rubio, Gonzalo & Tapia, Mikel, 2005. "Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: An empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-103. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  51. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
  52. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  53. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  54. Huberman, Gur & Halka, Dominika, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-78, Summer.
  55. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-41.
  56. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 2001. "Liquidity, Volatility and Equity Trading Costs across Countries and over Time," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 221-55, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  57. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  58. Huang, Ming, 2003. "Liquidity shocks and equilibrium liquidity premia," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 104-129, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  59. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  60. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  61. Ghysels, Eric & Cherkaoui, Mouna, 2003. "Emerging markets and trading costs: lessons from Casablanca," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 169-198, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  62. Ross Levine & Sergio Schmukler, 2006. "Internationalization and Stock Market Liquidity," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 153-187, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  63. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  64. Constantinides, George M, 1986. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 842-62, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  65. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  66. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Informed Speculation and Hedging in a Noncompetitive Securities Market," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 307-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  67. Vayanos, Dimitri, 1998. "Transaction Costs and Asset Prices: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 1-58.
  68. Lowengrub, Paul & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Before and after international cross-listing: an intraday examination of volume and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 139-155, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  69. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2000. "Investor protection and corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," NBER Working Papers 11362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kelly, Bryan & Ljungqvist, Alexander P., 2009. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christian Leuz & Karl V. Lins & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," NBER Working Papers 12222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," NBER Working Papers 10814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis, 2008. "Idiosyncratic risk, returns and liquidity in the London Stock Exchange: a spillover approach," Working Papers 0017, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gianni De Nicoló & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 09/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gianni De Nicolò & Iryna Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Söhnke M. Bartram & Gregory Brown & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do Foreign Firms Have Less Idiosyncratic Risk than U.S. Firms?," NBER Working Papers 14931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Liquidity on the Scandinavian Order-driven Stock Exchanges," CAFO Working Papers 2009:11, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Management and Economics, Växjö University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The performance of international portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Charles P. Thomas, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp162, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  14. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Management and Economics, Växjö University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2009. "Financial Openness and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 14843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are over 21000 authors registered on RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.