Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market
AbstractThis paper empirically examines the issue of market efficiency and time- varying risk return relationship for Bangladesh, an emerging equity market in South Asia. The study utilizes a unique data set of daily stock prices and returns compiled by the authors which was not utilized in any previous study. The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) equity returns show positive skewness, excess kurtosis and deviation from normality. The returns display significant serial correlation, implying stock market inefficiency. The results also show a significant relationship between conditional volatility and the stock returns, but the risk- return parameter is negative and statistically significant. While this result is not consistent with the portfolio theory, it is possible theoretically in emerging markets as investors may not demand higher risk premia if they are better able to bear risk at times of particular volatility (Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle, 1993). While circuit breaker overall did not have any impact on stock volatility, the imposition of the lock-in period has contributed to the price discovery mechanism by reverting an overall negative risk-return time-varying relationship into a positive one. As a policy to improve the capital market efficiency, the timely disclosure and dissemination of information to the shareholders and investors on the performance of listed companies should be emphasized.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0310015.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 16 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on win98; pages: 25
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://126.96.36.199
Other versions of this item:
- M. Kabir Hassan & Anisul M. Islam & Syed Abul Basher, 2000. "Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market," Working Papers 2002_6, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2002.
- G - Financial Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-10-20 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ETS-2003-10-20 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2003-10-20 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-10-20 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
- Baillie, R.T. & Degennaro, R.P., 1988.
"Stock Returns And Volatility,"
8803, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Buckberg, Elaine, 1995. "Emerging Stock Markets and International Asset Pricing," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 51-74, January.
- Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market," IMF Working Papers 99/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Beller, Kenneth & Nofsinger, John R, 1998. "On Stock Return Seasonality and Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 229-46, Summer.
- Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
- Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Nanda, Vikram, 1998. "Leverage and Market Stability: The Role of Margin Rules and Price Limits," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 179-210, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1989. "Volatility, Price Resolution, And The Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t7, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997.
"Emerging equity market volatility,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
- Errunza, Vihang, et al, 1994. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Global Stock Return Distributions," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 293-317, August.
- Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
- Susan Thomas, 1995. "Heteroscedasticity models on the BSE," Finance 9507007, EconWPA.
- Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Niazi, Ghulam Shabbir Khan & Butt, Babar Zaheer & Rehman, Kashif-Ur- & Azam, Rauf i, 2010. "Risk and return relationship in stock market and commodity prices: a comprehensive study of Pakistani markets," MPRA Paper 40662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.