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Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

Foreign portfolio flows may reflect deep changes in the functioning of an emerging market economy and its capital markets. Using a database of monthly net U.S. equity flows, we investigate the relation of these flows to the behavior of equity returns, the structural characteristics of the capital markets, exchange rates, and the strength of the economy. We find that increases in equity flows are associated with a lower cost of capital, higher correlation with world market returns, lower asset concentration, lower inflation, larger market size relative to GDP, more trade, and slightly higher per capita economic growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6669.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6669

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock market development and long-run growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mohamed A. El-Erian, 1994. "Emerging Equity Markets in Middle Eastern Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/103, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Geert Bekaert & Michael S. Urias, 1996. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 4990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?," IMF Working Papers 96/29, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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