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Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

Foreign portfolio flows may reflect deep changes in the functioning of an emerging market economy and its capital markets. Using a database of monthly net U.S. equity flows, we investigate the relation of these flows to the behavior of equity returns, the structural characteristics of the capital markets, exchange rates, and the strength of the economy. We find that increases in equity flows are associated with a lower cost of capital, higher correlation with world market returns, lower asset concentration, lower inflation, larger market size relative to GDP, more trade, and slightly higher per capita economic growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6669.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Publication status: published as Bekaert, Geert and Campbell R. Harvey. "Foreign Speculators And Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, 2000, v55(2,Apr), 565-613. Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence and Controversies, Edwards, Sebastian (NBER), ed., forthcoming.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6669

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 1998. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 1889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," Discussion Paper Series a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  5. Boyd, John & Smith, Bruce, 1996. "The Coevolution of the Real and Financial Sectors in the Growth Process," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 371-96, May.
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  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1996. "Capital account liberalization as a signal," Staff Reports 11, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
  13. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Korajczyk, Robert A, 1996. "A Measure of Stock Market Integration for Developed and Emerging Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 267-89, May.
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  17. Geert Bekaert & Michael S. Urias, 1996. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 4990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Buckberg, Elaine, 1995. "Emerging Stock Markets and International Asset Pricing," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 51-74, January.
  21. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?," IMF Working Papers 96/29, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Bailey, Warren & Jagtiani, Julapa, 1994. "Foreign ownership restrictions and stock prices in the Thai capital market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 57-87, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
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  26. John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1997. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Staff Reports 24, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  27. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 341-69, May.
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