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Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

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  • John Clark
  • Elizabeth Berko
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    Abstract

    We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987), or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies by foreign investors, and conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 24.

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    Date of creation: 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:24

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    Keywords: Investments; Foreign ; Stock - Prices ; Mexico;

    References

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    1. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. " A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
    2. Pagano, Marco, 1986. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hietala, Pekka T, 1989. " Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 697-718, July.
    4. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March.
    5. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, . "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices (Revision of 14-91) (Reprint 043)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
    8. Claessens, S. & Gooptu, S., 1993. "Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 228, World Bank.
    9. Merton, Robert C., 1987. "A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information," Working papers 1869-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    10. Kadlec, Gregory B & McConnell, John J, 1994. " The Effect of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices: Evidence from Exchange Listings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 611-36, June.
    11. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, . "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices (Revised: 2-92)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    12. Claudio M. Loser & Eliot Kalter, 1992. "Mexico: The Strategy to Achieve Sustained Economic Growth," IMF Occasional Papers 99, International Monetary Fund.
    13. John Mullin, 1993. "Emerging equity markets in the global economy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 54-83.
    14. Bagwell, Laurie Simon, 1991. "Shareholder Heterogeneity: Evidence and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 218-21, May.
    15. Gale, D. & Allen, F., 1991. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," Weiss Center Working Papers 14-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    16. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
    18. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
    19. Leonardo Leiderman & Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," Research Department Publications 4002, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1999. "The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    4. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    6. Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "International Equity Flows and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 562, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    7. Poonam Gupta & James P. F. Gordon, 2003. "Portfolio Flows into India: Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/20, International Monetary Fund.

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