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International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans
Viktoria Hnatkovska

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Abstract

International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and debt markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how greater integration in world financial markets affects the behavior of international capital flows and financial returns. Our model predicts that international capital flows are large (in absolute value) and very volatile during the early stages of financial integration when international asset trading is concentrated in bonds. As integration progresses and households gain access to world equity markets, the size and volatility of international bond flows fall dramatically but continue to exceed the size and volatility of international equity flows. This is the natural outcome of greater risk sharing facilitated by increased integration. We find that the equilibrium flows in bonds and stocks are larger than their empirical counterparts, and are largely driven by variations in equity risk premia. The paper also makes a methodological contribution to the literature on dynamic general equilibrium asset-pricing. We implement a new technique for solving a dynamic general equilibrium model with production, portfolio choice and incomplete markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11701.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11701

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," IMF Working Papers 07/284, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hervé Boulhol, 2008. "The Convergence of Price–cost Margins," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 221-240, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on Global Imbalances and Financial Factors," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Country Portfolio Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michael B Devereux, 2007. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Market Portfolios," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2008. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2009. "Valuation Effects and the Dynamics of Net External Assets," NBER Working Papers 14794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2005. "Solving General Equilibrium Models with Incomplete Markets and Many Assets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace & Johanna Francis, 2008. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Working Papers 2008-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2008. "Country portfolios in open economy macro models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "International capital flows," Staff Reports 280, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  14. Didier, Tatiana & Lowenkron, Alexandre, 2009. "The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4861, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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