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A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Rich Lyons
Martin Evans

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Abstract

We present a new class of general equilibrium model to study exchange rate dynamics. Our model synthesizes the new micro and macro approaches by incorporating the micro foundations of asset market trading into a dynamic, two country general equilibrium setting. We use the model to study how dispersed information from the real economy is aggregated by trading, and embedded into exchange rates and interest rates. The presence of dispersed information generates a new factor that contributes to the foreign exchange risk premium and a new source of exchange rate dynamics. Our analysis also provides a general equilibrium explanation for the role of order flow in exchange rate determination.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 622.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:622

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange Rate Dynamics Dispersed Information FX Trading

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Margarida Duarte & Alan C. Stockman, 2001. "Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 8362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. H. Henry Cao & Richard K. Lyons & Martin D.D. Evans, 2003. "Inventory Information," NBER Working Papers 9893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  16. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Sanford J. Grossman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," NBER Reprints 0121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
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  21. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations : Deep Insights from a New Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 624, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Evans, Martin D, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 831, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
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  5. Törbjörn I. Becker & Amadou N. R. Sy, 2005. "Were Bid-Ask Spreads in the FX Market Excessive During the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 05/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2007. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2007-16, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Albuquerque, Rui & de Francisco, Eva & Marques, Luis, 2006. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170. [Downloadable!]
  10. John Williamson, 2008. "Exchange Rate Economics," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP08-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2005. "International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 11701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Martin D. D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September. [Downloadable!]
  13. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Martin Evans, 2005. "International Capital Flows in a World of Greater Financial Integration," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 419, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 10476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Working Papers 04-32, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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