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Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow

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Author Info
William P. Killeen
Richard K. Lyons
Michael J. Moore

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Abstract

This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation for the puzzle. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce volatility under flexible rates because they have portfolio-balance effects on price, whereas under fixed rates the same shocks do not have portfolio-balance effects. These effects arise in one regime and not the other because the elasticity of speculative demand for foreign exchange is (endogenously) regime-dependent: low elasticity under flexible rates magnifies portfolio-balance effects; under credibly fixed rates, elasticity of speculative demand is infinite, eliminating portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, determination of the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as predicted by the model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8491.

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Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8491

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Geir Høidal Bjønnes, Dagfinn Rime and Haakon O.Aa. Solheim, 2004. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 391, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Viera Chmelarova & Gunter Schnabl, 2006. "Exchange rate stabilization in developed and underdeveloped capital markets," Working Paper Series 636, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis & Alex Saunders, 2009. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009_25, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," International Finance Discussion Papers 830, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. M. Martin Boyer & Simon van Norden, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Order Flow in the Long Run," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-07, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  14. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80. [Downloadable!]
  17. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Carlos de Almeida Cardoso & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2004. "Câmbio, Inflação E Juros Na Transição Do Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Uma Análise De Vetores Auto-Regressivos E Causalidade," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 080, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," Economics Working Papers we077039, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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