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Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?

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Abstract

This paper provides a new test for whether different-currency assets are imperfect substitutes. Past work on imperfect substitutability in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on monetary fundamentals, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for price effects from imperfect substitutability. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Price effects from imperfect substitutability are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to intervention trades in the special case when they are indistinguishable from private trades (i.e., when interventions are sterilized, anonymous, and provide no monetary-policy signal).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~00-00-05.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 05 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~00-00-05

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2473, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Peter Bofinger & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 81-109, June.
  3. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Sterilisierte Devisenmarktinterventionen - ein umstrittenes währungspolitisches Instrument," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(19), pages 34-44, October.
  4. Richard W. Evans, 2007. "Is openness inflationary? Imperfect competition and monetary market power," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
  6. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Josh Ederington & Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2005. "Footloose and Pollution-Free," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 92-99, February.
  8. M. Kayalica & Sajal Lahiri, 2005. "Strategic Environmental Policies in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, January.
  9. Per G. Fredriksson & John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet, 2003. "Chasing the Smokestack: Strategic Policymaking With Multiple Instruments," NBER Working Papers 9801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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