This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Carol L. Osler (Brandeis University)
Abstract

This paper documents clustering in currency stop-loss and take-profit orders, and uses that clustering to provide an explanation for two familiar predictions from technical analysis: (1) trends tend to reverse course at predictable support and resistance levels, and (2) trends tend to be unusually rapid after rates cross such levels. The data are the first available on individual currency stop-loss and take-profit orders. Take-profit orders cluster particularly strongly at round numbers, which could explain the first prediction. Stop-loss orders cluster strongly just beyond round numbers, which could explain the second prediction. Copyright (c) 2003 by the American Finance Association.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=jofi&volume=58&issue=5&year=2003&part=null
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1791-1820
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1791-1820

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.afajof.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "An analysis of Japanese foreign exchange interventions, 1991-2002," Working Paper 0309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-331, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chris D'Souza, 2007. "Where Does Price Discovery Occur in FX Markets?," Working Papers 07-52, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-339, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen Humpage, 2005. "An assessment of the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention: 1991-2004," International Finance Discussion Papers 824, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Andreas Fischer, 2004. "Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions," Working Papers 04.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-8.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.