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How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market?
[‘The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility’]

Author

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  • Harald Hau
  • William Killeen
  • Michael Moore

Abstract

This paper examines the primary forex statistics for the euro in relation to the German mark prior to 1999. Contrary to widespread expectations, our evidence indicates that the euro lost ground against the US dollar in forex spot trading and in some dimensions does not even match the international transaction role of the German mark. We argue that the euro changed the forex market structure and particularly increased market transparency through currency elimination. The higher market transparency exposes the dealers to higher inventory risk as his inventory imbalances are revealed more easily to other dealers. Dealers in the euro markets recover increased inventory costs through higher spreads that make the euro a less attractive transaction medium than the German mark. We explore the policy implications for the ECB, for euro outsiders and reflect upon the future of the forex market.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Hau & William Killeen & Michael Moore, 2002. "How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market? [‘The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 149-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:34:p:149-192.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0327.00086
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