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Price Discovery in Currency Markets

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Author Info
Osler, Carol
Mende, Alexander
Menkhoff, Lukas

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Abstract

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade's likely information content. Second, the paper suggests three potential sources for the pattern of customer spreads, two of which rely on the information structure of the market. Third, the paper suggests an alternative price discovery process for currencies, centered on inventory management strategies in the interdealer market, and provides preliminary evidence for that process.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover with number dp-351.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-351

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Related research
Keywords: Bid-ask spread; foreign exchange; asymmetric information; microstructure; price discovery; interdealer; inventory; market order; limit order;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Flood, Mark D, et al, 1999. "Quote Disclosure and Price Discovery in Multiple-Dealer Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 37-59.
  2. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Oliver Hansch & Narayan Y. Naik & S. Viswanathan, 1998. "Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1623-1656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bernhardt, Dan & Hughson, Eric, 2002. "Intraday trade in dealership markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1697-1732, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Leach, J Chris & Madhavan, Ananth N, 1993. "Price Experimentation and Security Market Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 375-404. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  12. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christie, William G & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. " Why Do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1813-40, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hasabrouck, Joel & Sofianos, George, 1993. " The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1565-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Naik, Narayan Y & Neuberger, Anthony & Viswanathan, S, 1999. "Trade Disclosure Regulations in Markets with Negotiated Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 873-900.
  18. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  19. Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "Customer trading and information in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 30/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dan Bernhardt & Vladimir Dvoracek & Eric Hughson & Ingrid M. Werner, 2005. "Why Do Larger Orders Receive Discounts on the London Stock Exchange?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1343-1368. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2149-2192, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Understanding order flow," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Richard Payne & Charles Goodhart & Dagfinn Rime, 2002. "Analysis of spreads in the Dollar/Euro and Deutsche Mark/Dollar foreign exchange markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp467, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Chris Leach, J. & Madhavan, Ananth N., 1992. "Intertemporal price discovery by market makers: Active versus passive learning," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 207-235, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-331, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-339, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Liang Ding, 2009. "Bid-ask spread and order size in the foreign exchange market: an empirical investigation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 98-105. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "What determines transaction costs in foreign exchange markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 14-25. [Downloadable!]
  5. John A Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2008-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  6. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus & Taylor , Mark P., 2009. "Financial Intermediation and the Role of Price Discrimination in a Two-Tier Market," MPRA Paper 15602, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80. [Downloadable!]
  9. Chris D'Souza, 2007. "Where Does Price Discovery Occur in FX Markets?," Working Papers 07-52, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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