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Asymmetric Information Risk in FX Markets

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  • Angelo Ranaldo
  • Fabricius Somogyi

Abstract

This work studies the information content of trades in the world’s largest over-thecounter (OTC) market, the foreign exchange (FX) market. It analyses a novel, comprehensive order flow dataset, distinguishing amongst different groups of market participants and covering a large cross-section of currency pairs. We find compelling evidence of heterogeneous superior information across agents, time and currency pairs, consistent with the asymmetric information theory and OTC market fragmentation. A trading strategy based on the permanent price impact, capturing asymmetric information risk, generates high returns even after accounting for risk, transaction cost and other common risk factors documented in the FX literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Ranaldo & Fabricius Somogyi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information Risk in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1820, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:20
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    2. Liu, Min & Guo, Tongji & Ping, Weiying & Luo, Liangqing, 2023. "Sustainability and stability: Will ESG investment reduce the return and volatility spillover effects across the Chinese financial market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    6. Iraklis Kollias & John Leventides & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou, 2022. "On the solution of games with arbitrary payoffs: An application to an over-the-counter financial market," Working Papers 202302, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    7. Leonie Bräuer & Harald Hau, 2022. "Can Time-Varying Currency Risk Hedging Explain Exchange Rates?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
    8. Federico C. Nucera & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2023. "Currency risk premiums redux?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1415, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Yu‐Lun Chen & Yin‐Feng Gau, 2022. "The information effect of order flows in foreign currency futures and spot markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1549-1572, August.
    10. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, "undated". "Foreign exchange order flow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2023-03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O'Brien, John & O'Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Are carry, momentum and value still there in currencies?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Olav Syrstad & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Working Paper 2020/16, Norges Bank.
    13. Alain Chaboud & Dagfinn Rime & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "The foreign exchange market," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 12, pages 253-275, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    15. Tatyana Sukhadolets & Elena Stupnikova & Natalia Fomenko & Nadezhda Kapustina & Yuri Kuznetsov, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Investment in Construction and Poverty in Economic Crises (Denmark, Italy, Germany, Romania, China, India and Russia)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Hasbrouck, Joel & Levich, Richard M., 2021. "Network structure and pricing in the FX market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 705-729.
    17. Ingomar Krohn & Philippe Mueller & Paul Whelan, 2021. "Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock," Staff Working Papers 21-48, Bank of Canada.
    18. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    3. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    4. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric information; Currency portfolios; Heterogeneity; Order flow; OTC; Risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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