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An empirical study of portfolio-balance and information effects of order flow on exchange rates

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Author Info

  • Breedon, Francis
  • Vitale, Paolo

Abstract

We propose a simple structural model of exchange rate determination which is inspired by the analytical framework recently forward by Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2006) and allows us to disentangle the portfolio-balance and information effects of order flow on exchange rates. We estimate this model employing an innovative transaction data-set that covers all indirect foreign exchange transactions completed in the USD/EUR market via EBS and Reuters between August 2000 and January 2001. Our results indicate that the strong contemporaneous correlation between order flow and exchange rates is largely due to portfolio-balance effects. This result also appears to carry through the four FX intervention events that appear in our sample.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 504-524

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:504-524

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Order flow Foreign exchange microstructure Exchange rate dynamics;

References

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  1. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 1999. "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidece from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 54-69, February.
  4. Martin Evans and David Lyons, 2001. "Time-Varying Liquidity in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers gueconwpa~01-01-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  5. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
  8. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  9. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  12. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  14. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  15. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
  16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  17. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
  18. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  19. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
  20. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  21. Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows and Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  23. Richard Payne, 2003. "Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp475, Financial Markets Group.
  24. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Karnaukh, Nina & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2013. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1315, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  3. Michael King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward," Working Papers 54, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  4. Carol Osler, 2012. "Market Microstructure and the Profitability of Currency Trading," Working Papers 48, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  5. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.

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