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An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

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  • Cerrato, Mario
  • Sarantis, Nicholas
  • Saunders, Alex

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macro-economic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the micro-structure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1892-1906

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1892-1906

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Keywords: Customer order flow Exchange rates Micro-structure Forecasting;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Masayuki Susai & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Central bank interventions and limit order behavior in the foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 56, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
  2. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2014. "Asymmetric responses of ask and bid quotes to information in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-204.
  3. Chen, Shikuan & Chien, Chih-Chung & Chang, Ming-Jen, 2012. "Order flow, bid–ask spread and trading density in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 597-612.
  4. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
  5. Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.

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