Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Micro approaches to foreign exchange determination

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martin D. D. Evans

    ()
    (Georgetown University and NBER)

  • Dagfinn Rime

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

Micro-based exchange-rate research examines the determination and behavior of spot exchange rates in an environment that replicates the key features of trading in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Traditional macro exchange-rate models play little attention to how trading in the FX market actually takes place. The implicit assumption is that the details of trading are unimportant for the behavior of exchange rates over months, quarters or longer. Micro-based models, by contrast, examine how information relevant to the pricing of FX becomes reflected in the spot exchange rate via the trading process. According to this view, trading is not an ancillary market activity that can be ignored when considering exchange-rate behavior. Rather, trading is an integral part of the process through which spot rates are determined and evolve. The past decade of micro-based research has uncovered a robust and strong empirical relation between exchange rates and measures of FX trading activity. One measure in particular, order flow (i.e., the net of buyer- and seller-initiated FX trades) appears as the proximate driver of exchange-rate changes over horizons ranging from a few minutes to a few months. This finding supports the view that trading is an integral part of exchange-rate determination. It also stands in stark contrast to the well-known deficiencies of macro models in accounting for exchange-rate variations over horizons shorter than a couple of years. In this paper we provide an overview of micro-based research on exchange-rate determination. We survey both models focusing on partial equilibrium, the traditional domain of microstructure research, and recent research that focuses on the link between currency trading and macroeconomic conditions in the general equilibrium setting of modern macroeconomic models. We believe micro-based research is making some progress towards understanding the links between macroeconomic conditions and the behavior of exchange rates over macro- and policy-relevant horizons.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2011/WP-201105/
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2011/05.

as in new window
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 10 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2011_05

Note: First version:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Email:
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Keywords: Exchange rate dynamics; Microstructure; Order flow;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Onur, Esen, 2011. "How much you know matters: A note on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," MPRA Paper 32772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dagfinn Rime & Hans Jørgen Tranvåg, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper 2012/01, Norges Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2011_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.