Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Currency Momentum Strategies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lukas Menkhoff
  • Lucio Sarno
  • Maik Schmeling
  • Andreas Schrimpf

Abstract

We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a signiffcant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% p.a. between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors, it is partially explained by transaction costs and shows behavior consistent with investor under- and over-reaction. Moreover, crosssectional currency momentum has very different properties from the widely studied carry trade and is not highly correlated with returns of benchmark technical trading rules. However, there seem to be very effective limits to arbitrage which prevent momentum returns from being easily exploitable in currency markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work366.pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work366.htm
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 366.

as in new window
Length: 89 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:366

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Momentum Returns; Limits to Arbitrage; Idiosyncratic Volatility; Carry Trades;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "Momentum Cycles and Limits to Arbitrage Evidence from Victorian England and Post-Depression US Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 15591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
  4. Eisdorfer, Assaf, 2008. "Delisted firms and momentum profits," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 160-179, May.
  5. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
  6. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 425-447, June.
  7. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, 02.
  8. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
  9. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
  10. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
  11. A. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David A. Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Working Papers 10-46, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  12. Nick Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," 2008 Meeting Papers 711, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage: The State of the Theory," NBER Working Papers 15821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. K. Rouwenhorst, 1996. "International Momentum Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm36, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
  15. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 16942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2006. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," SIFR Research Report Series 42, Institute for Financial Research.
  17. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Carry Trade: The Gains of Diversification," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 581-588, 04-05.
  19. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
  20. Goyal, Amit & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Cross-section of option returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 310-326, November.
  21. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, 08.
  22. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  23. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2007. "Momentum and Credit Rating," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2503-2520, October.
  24. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  27. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  28. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
  29. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow-Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, 08.
  31. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  32. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  33. Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2003. "Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?," Finance 0308004, EconWPA.
  34. Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2009. "A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1575-1585, September.
  35. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  36. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Verardo, Michela, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Momentum Profits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 795-822, August.
  38. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
  39. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  40. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, 04.
  41. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
  42. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  43. Michael Melvin & Duncan Shand, 2010. "Active Currency Investing and Performance Benchmarks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3052, CESifo Group Munich.
  44. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
  45. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
  46. Lucio Sarno & Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner, 2012. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," Working Paper Series 10_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  47. Mitchell, Mark & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Pulvino, Todd, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 6117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
  49. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  50. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
  52. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  53. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2007. "Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1081-1137, 06.
  54. Roberto C. Gutierrez & Eric K. Kelley, 2008. "The Long-Lasting Momentum in Weekly Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 415-447, 02.
  55. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Soeren Hvidkjaer, 2006. "A Trade-Based Analysis of Momentum," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 457-491.
  57. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
  58. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
  59. Sagi, Jacob S. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2007. "Firm-specific attributes and the cross-section of momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 389-434, May.
  60. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Serban, Alina F., 2010. "Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2720-2727, November.
  62. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  63. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  64. Gergana Jostova & Stanislava Nikolova & Alexander Philipov & Christof W. Stahel, 2013. "Momentum in Corporate Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1649-1693.
  65. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2011. "A Model of Momentum," NBER Working Papers 16747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Investment-Based Momentum Profits," Working Paper Series 2010-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  67. Michael R King & Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  68. Pojarliev, Momtchil & Levich, Richard M., 2010. "Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1752-1775, December.
  69. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, 04.
  70. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
  71. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  72. Gebhardt, William R. & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2005. "Stock and bond market interaction: Does momentum spill over?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 651-690, March.
  73. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  74. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 1999. "Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-458.
  75. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, 04.
  76. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17.
  77. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gino Cenedese & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas, 2014. "Foreign Exchange Risk and the Predictability of Carry Trade Returns," Working Paper Series 02_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2013. "The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation," CAMA Working Papers 2013-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  5. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies," Working Papers 2011-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Victoria Galsband & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Working Papers 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  9. Karnaukh, Nina & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2013. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1315, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  10. Clare, Andrew & Seaton, James & Smith, Peter N. & Thomas, Stephen, 2014. "Trend following, risk parity and momentum in commodity futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-12.
  11. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
  12. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
  13. Raza, Ahmad & Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2014. "Is there momentum or reversal in weekly currency returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-60.
  14. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf, 2013. "The anatomy of the global FX market through the lens of the 2013 Triennial Survey," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  15. Malliaris, A.G. & Malliaris, Mary, 2011. "Are foreign currency markets interdependent? evidence from data mining technologies," MPRA Paper 35261, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.