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Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers

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  • Pojarliev, Momtchil
  • Levich, Richard M.

Abstract

We make use of a new database on daily currency fund manager returns over a three-year period, 2005-2008. This higher frequency data allows us to estimate both alpha measures of performance and beta style factors on a yearly basis, which in turn allows us to test for persistence. We find no evidence to support alpha persistence; a manager's alpha in one year is not significantly related to his alpha in the prior year. On the other hand, there is substantial evidence for style persistence; funds that rely on carry, trend or value trading or with a long/short bias toward currency volatility are likely to maintain that style in the following year. In addition, we are able to examine the performance of managers that survive through the entire sample period, versus those that drop out. We find significant differences in both the investment styles of living versus deceased funds, as well as their realized alpha performance measures. We conjecture that both style differences and ineffective market timing, rather than market conditions, have impacted performance outcomes and induced some managers to close their funds.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1752-1775

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:8:p:1752-1775

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Foreign exchange Hedge funds Style investing;

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References

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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Jorion, Philippe, 2010. "The performance of emerging hedge funds and managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 238-256, May.
  4. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
  6. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
  7. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  8. Jennifer Carpenter & Anthony Lynch, 1998. "Survivorship Bias and Attrition Effects in Measures of Performance Persistence," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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Cited by:
  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency Momentum Strategies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  3. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2010. "Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds," NBER Working Papers 15698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
  6. Michael Melvin & John Prins & Duncan Shand, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: An Investor Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4238, CESifo Group Munich.

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