This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher J. Neely

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This article reconciles an apparent contradiction found by recent research on U.S. intervention in foreign exchange markets. LeBaron (1996) and Szakmary and Mathur (1997) show that extrapolative technical trading rules trade against U.S. foreign exchange intervention and produce excess returns during intervention periods. Leahy (1995) shows that U.S. intervention itself is profitable over long periods of time. In other words, technical trades make excess returns when they take positions contrary to U.S. intervention - U.S. intervention itself is profitable, however. This article will first present recent research on these subjects. Then it will discuss how differing investment horizons and varying returns and position sizes may reconcile these facts.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1998index.html
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/98/07/9807cn.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 3-17
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1998:i:jul:p:3-17:n:v.80no.4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange - Law and legislation;

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 2000. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Working Papers 1997-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  4. Suk-Joong Kim & Jeffrey Sheen, . "The Determinants of Foreign Exchange Intervention by Central Banks: Evidence from Australia," Working Papers 9919, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. repec:bep:glecon:6:2007:2:3 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," Working Papers 2006-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2003. "Modeling coordinated foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese and U.S. interventions in the 1990s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 709-729, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Working Papers 2000-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher J. Neely, 2003. "The Federal Reserve responds to crises: September 11th was not the first," Working Papers 2003-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. S.Kim & T. Kortian & J. Sheen, 1999. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers 9905, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Yochanan Shachmurove & Uri BenZion & Paul Klein & Joseph Yagil, 2001. "A Moving Average Comparison of the Tel-Aviv 25 and S&P 500 Stock Indices," Penn CARESS Working Papers 4731f3394c43bebf4d3191c81, Penn Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? It is the publishers that input data about their publications, as there is no staff at RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.