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Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?

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Author Info
Michael Dueker
Christopher J. Neely

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Abstract

This paper merges the literature on technical trading rules with the literature on Markov switching to develop economically useful trading rules. The Markov models' out-of sample, excess returns modestly exceed those of standard technical rules and are profitable over the most recent subsample. A portfolio of Markov and standard technical rules outperforms either set individually, on a risk-adjusted basis. The Markov rules' high excess returns contrast with mixed performance on statistical tests of forecast accuracy. There is no clear source for the trends, but permitting the mean to depend on higher moments of the exchange rate distribution modestly increases returns.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2001-021.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2001-021

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Keywords: Foreign exchange ; Forecasting;

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  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
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  4. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Blake LeBaron, . "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearities in Foreign Exchange?," Working papers _005, University of Wisconsin - Madison. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Perlin, M., 2007. "M of a kind: A Multivariate Approach at Pairs Trading," MPRA Paper 8309, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 667, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2007. "Dynamic Risk Exposure in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2007_17, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ãdám Kóbor & István P. Székely, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in EU Accession Countries in the Run-up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 04/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Perlin, M., 2007. "Evaluation of pairs trading strategy at the Brazilian financial market," MPRA Paper 8308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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