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Do Momentum-based Strategies Work in Emerging Currency Markets?

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  • Hugo Tak-Sang, IP
  • Terence Tai-Leung, Chong

Abstract

Existing studies on the profitability of trading rules in the currency market focus mainly on the currencies of developed countries. The profitability of technical trading rules on the currencies of emerging economies is surprisingly understudied. This paper evaluates the profitability of technical trading rules in emerging currency markets. Similar to Okunev and White [Okunev, J. and White, D., (2003) "Do Momentum-based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?" Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38, 425-447.], 354 long/short moving average rules for six currencies are investigated. It is found that investing in emerging currencies can generate a considerable annual return of over 20%, even after a 5% annual transaction cost is imposed. The trading-rule profits are relatively stable across the 20Â year sample period. Furthermore, the impact of financial crises on the trading-rule returns is also examined. It is found that the profitability of the trading rules is improved after the crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number _181.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhked:_181

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References

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  1. Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael D. McKenzie, 2007. "Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(4), pages 46-73, August.
  3. Ratner, Mitchell & Leal, Ricardo P. C., 1999. "Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1887-1905, December.
  4. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
  5. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 425-447, June.
  6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
  8. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
  9. Su, Qian & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2007. "Determining the contributions to price discovery for Chinese cross-listed stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 140-153, April.
  10. Evan G. Galev & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative Value Arbitrage Rule," NBER Working Papers 7032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
  12. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
  13. Martin, Anna D., 2001. "Technical trading rules in the spot foreign exchange markets of developing countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-68, February.
  14. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.
  15. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  16. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1998. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 489-519.
  17. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
  18. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  19. Lee, Chun I & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Trading rule profits in Latin American currency spot rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-156.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William Wai Him Tsang & Terence Tai Leung Chong, 2009. "Profitability of the On-Balance Volume Indicator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2424-2431.
  2. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
  3. Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.
  4. Raza, Ahmad & Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2014. "Is there momentum or reversal in weekly currency returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-60.
  5. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
  6. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ng, Wing-Kam & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2014. "Revisiting the Performance of MACD and RSI Oscillators," MPRA Paper 54149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kim man Lui & Terence T. L. Chong, 2013. "Do Technical Analysts Outperform Novice Traders: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3080-3087.

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