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Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap

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Author Info
Sullivan, Ryan
Timmermann, Allan G
White, Halbert

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Abstract

In this paper we utilize White's Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data-snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect in the context of the full universe from which the trading rules were drawn. Hence, for the first time, the paper presents a comprehensive test of performance across all technical trading rules examined. We consider the study of Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992), expand their universe of 26 trading rules, apply the rules to 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and determine the effects of data-snooping.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1976.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1976

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Keywords: bootstrap methods data-snooping Financial Performance Technical Trading Rules

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
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  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giampiero M. Gallo & Yongmiao Hong & Tae-Why Lee, 2001. "Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
  9. M. A. H. Dempster & C. M. Jones, 2002. "Can channel pattern trading be profitably automated?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-301, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Spyros Skouras, 1998. "Financial Returns and Efficiency as seen by an Artificial Technical Analyst," Finance 9808001, EconWPA, revised 24 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Eric Ghysels & João Pereira, 2003. "On Portfolio Choice, Liquidity, and Short Selling: A Nonparametric Investigation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-27, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  12. Brian M. Lucey, 2004. "Robust estimates of daily seasonality in the Irish equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Foort Hamelink, 2001. "Nonlinear analysis for forecasting currencies: are they useful to the portfolio manager?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 335-355, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Joseph P & Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Formalized Data Snooping Based on Generalized Error Rates," IEW - Working Papers iewwp259, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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