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The impact of data snooping on the testing of technical analysis: An empirical study of Asian stock markets

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  • Chen, Cheng-Wei
  • Huang, Chin-Sheng
  • Lai, Hung-Wei
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    Abstract

    The primary aim of this study is to investigate the validity and predictability of technical analysis in eight Asian equity markets. We employ the bootstrap tests of White (2000) and Hansen (2005) to determine whether any superior trading rule is found to exist amongst the 'universe' of technical trading rules identified by Sullivan et al. (1999). We use these powerful bootstrap tests to ascertain the profitability of technical analysis, along with two institutional adjustments for non-synchronous trading and transaction costs. The empirical results indicate that these three elements, data snooping, non-synchronous trading and transaction costs, have significant impact on the overall performance of technical analysis; indeed, the results for these eight Asian stock markets support the efficient market hypothesis, demonstrating that the generation of economic profits through the use of technical analysis is extremely unlikely with these particular markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 580-591

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:580-591

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

    Related research

    Keywords: Technical analysis Bootstrap tests Data snooping Asian stock markets;

    References

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    2. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    17. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    18. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Linnan, David & Neal, Robert, 1999. "Emerging market transaction costs: Evidence from Indonesia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-127, May.
    19. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
    20. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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    23. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
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