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Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules

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  • Metghalchi, Massoud
  • Chang, Yung-Ho
  • Marcucci, Juri

Abstract

In this paper we examine the profitability of some technical trading rules in the Swedish stock market over the 1986-2004 periods. The results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and could discern recurring-price patterns for profitable trading, even after accounting for the effects of data snooping biases. To assess the profitability of different technical trading rules and strategies, we adopt White's [White, H. (2000). A Reality Check for data snooping, Econometrica, 68, 1097-1126.] Reality Check test that quantifies the data snooping bias adjusting for its effects. Our results also support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy-and-hold strategy even considering transaction costs.

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  • Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:475-490
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    3. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2015. "Buy and sell signals on Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2016.
    4. Kung, James J., 2009. "Predictability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 5(1-2), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Eero P䴤ri & Mika Vilska, 2014. "Performance of moving average trading strategies over varying stock market conditions: the Finnish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2851-2872, August.
    6. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    7. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    8. Metghalchi Massoud & Garza-Gomez Xavier, 2011. "Trading Rules for the Abu Dhabi Stock Index," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, May.
    9. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    10. Massoud Metghalchi & Linda A. Hayes & Farhang Niroomand, 2019. "A technical approach to equity investing in emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 389-403, July.
    11. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    12. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Sturludóttir, Hildur, 2015. "Do capital controls affect stock market efficiency? Lessons from Iceland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 82-88.
    13. Yi-Chein Chiang & Mei-Chu Ke & Tung Liang Liao & Cin-Dian Wang, 2012. "Are technical trading strategies still profitable? Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index Futures Market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 955-965, June.
    14. Farhang Niroomand & Massoud Metghalchi & Massomeh Hajilee, 2020. "Efficient market hypothesis: a ruinous implication for Portugese stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 749-763, October.
    15. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2016. "Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 179-196.

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