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Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias

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Author Info

  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan
  • Hsu, Yu-Chin
  • Kuan, Chung-Ming

Abstract

In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the "superior predictive ability" (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify predictive models without potential data snooping bias. It is shown analytically and by simulations that the stepwise SPA test is more powerful than the stepwise Reality Check test of Romano and Wolf (2005, Econometrica). We then apply the proposed test to examine the predictive ability of technical trading rules based on the data of growth and emerging market indices and their exchange traded funds (ETFs). It is found that technical trading rules have significant predictive power for these markets, yet such evidence weakens after the ETFs are introduced.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 471-484

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:471-484

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords: Data snooping Exchange traded funds Reality check SPA test Stepwise test Technical trading rules;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
  2. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
  3. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
  4. Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
  5. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2013. "Time-series momentum as an intra- and inter-industry effect: Implications for market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 64-85.
  7. Christopher J. Bennett, 2009. "p-Value Adjustments for Asymptotic Control of the Generalized Familywise Error Rate," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  8. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
  9. Dan Anghel, 2013. "How Reliable is the Moving Average Crossover Rule for an Investor on the Romanian Stock Market?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(2), pages 089-115, December.

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