The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered
AbstractAlfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion - that the Dow Theory, as applied by its major practitioner, William Peter Hamilton over the period 1902 to 1929, yielded positive risk-adjusted returns. A re-analysis of the Hamilton editorials suggests that his timing strategies yield high Sharpe ratios and positive alphas. Neural net modeling to replicate Hamilton's market calls provides interesting insight into the nature and content of the Dow Theory. This allows us to examine the properties of the Dow Theory itself out-of-sample.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 98-013.
Date of creation: 17 Feb 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1311-1333, 08.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2004. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm30, Yale School of Management.
- Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm85, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Neely, Christopher J., 2003.
"Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-87.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2010. "Modern Finance, Methodology and the Global Crisis," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2010_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
- Thomas Schuster, 2003. "Fifty-Fifty. Stock Recommendations and Stock Prices. Effects and Benefits of Investment Advice in the Business Media," Finance 0303002, EconWPA.
- Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
- Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 2005. "Risk adjusted returns from technical trading: a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1073-1077.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006.
"Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
- Robert Pereira, 1999.
"Forecasting Ability but No Profitability: an Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-Optimized Technical Trading Rules,"
1999.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Pereira, Robert, 1999. "Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 9055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004.
"Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
- Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society.
- Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
- Li, Wei & Lam, Kin, 2002. "Optimal market timing strategies under transaction costs," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-108, April.
- Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012.
"Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
- Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet, 2007. "Technical Trading Revisited: False Discoveries, Persistence Tests, and Transaction Costs," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-05, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jul 2009.
- Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2004. "Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 04-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2010. "Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-484, June.
- Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.