This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)
Stephen J. Brown () (Department of Finance)
Alok Kumar () (Mendoza College of Business)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper, we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion -- that the Dow Theory, as applied by its major practitioner, William Peter Hamilton over the period 1902 to 1929, yielded positive risk-adjusted returns. A re-analysis of the Hamilton editorials suggests that his timing strategies yield high Sharpe ratios and positive alphas. Neural net modeling to replicate Hamilton's market calls provides interesting insight into the nature and content of the Dow Theory. This allows us to examine the properties of the Dow Theory itself out-of-sample.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=58690
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm85.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Feb 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm85

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mba.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "Fifty-Fifty. Stock Recommendations and Stock Prices. Effects and Benefits of Investment Advice in the Business Media," Finance 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Pereira, Robert, 1999. "Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 9055, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  5. Enrico Zaninotto, 1997. "Comitati volontari e standard de-iure," Quaderni DISA 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy.
  6. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Citation analysis on IDEAS includes online papers that are freely accessible and whose text could be automatically analyzed, currently about 210000 papers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.