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The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered

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  • Stephen Brown
  • William Goetzmann
  • Alok Kumar

Abstract

Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper, we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion -- that the Dow Theory, as applied by its major practitioner, William Peter Hamilton over the period 1902 to 1929, yielde

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File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2439
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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm85.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 1998
Date of revision: 01 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm85

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  1. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
  2. repec:fth:pennfi:70 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
  4. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2010. "Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-484, June.
  2. Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. repec:ltr:wpaper:1999.06 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
  6. Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  7. Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 2005. "Risk adjusted returns from technical trading: a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1073-1077.
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Ravi Dhar & William Goetzmann, 2005. "Bubble Investors: What Were They Thinking?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm446, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2006.
  10. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Pereira, Robert, 1999. "Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 9055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2010. "Modern Finance, Methodology and the Global Crisis," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2010_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  15. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2004. "Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 04-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  16. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
  17. Li, Wei & Lam, Kin, 2002. "Optimal market timing strategies under transaction costs," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-108, April.
  18. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "Fifty-Fifty. Stock Recommendations and Stock Prices. Effects and Benefits of Investment Advice in the Business Media," Finance 0303002, EconWPA.

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