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The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey

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  • Meredith Beechey

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • David Gruen

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • James Vickery

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis states that asset prices in financial markets should reflect all available information; as a consequence, prices should always be consistent with ‘fundamentals’. In this paper, we discuss the main ideas behind the efficient market hypothesis, and provide a guide as to which of its predictions seem to be borne out by empirical evidence, and which do not. In examining the empirical evidence, we concentrate on the stock and foreign exchange markets. The efficient market hypothesis is almost certainly the right place to start when thinking about asset price formation. The evidence suggests, however, that it cannot explain some important and worrying features of asset market behaviour. Most importantly for the wider goal of efficient resource allocation, financial market prices appear at times to be subject to substantial misalignments, which can persist for extended periods of time.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2000-01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2000-01

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Keywords: efficient market; financial market;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Shahram Fattahi & Omid Ranjbar, 2010. "Weak- Form Efficiency in the German Stock Market," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 15(3), pages 77-94, fall.
  2. Giglio, Ricardo & Matsushita, Raul & Figueiredo, Annibal & Gleria, Iram & Da Silva, Sergio, 2008. "Algorithmic complexity theory and the relative efficiency of financial markets," MPRA Paper 8704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kei Takeuchi & Akimichi Takemura & Masayuki Kumon, 2011. "New Procedures for Testing Whether Stock Price Processes are Martingales," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 67-88, January.
  4. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "News Events and Price Movements. Price Effects of Economic and Non-Economic Publications in the News Media," Finance 0305009, EconWPA.
  5. Eduardo Roca & Victor Wong & Gurudeo Tularam, 2010. "The Market Sensitivity of Australian Superannuation Socially Responsible Investment Funds. Evidence from a Markov Regime Switching Approach," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201012, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  6. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2007. "Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12.
  7. Dima, Bogdan & Pirtea, Marilen & Barna, Flavia & Murgea, Aurora & Nachescu, Miruna, 2007. "The Analysis of the Bucharest Stock Exchange Financial Sector," MPRA Paper 12313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:6:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Y. Shi & A. N. Gorban & T. Y. Yang, 2013. "Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case Study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)," Papers 1307.8308, arXiv.org.
  10. Dima, Bogdan & Barna, Flavia & Pirtea, Marilen, 2007. "Romanian Capital Market And The Informational Efficiency," MPRA Paper 5807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Institute for the Environment and Regional Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  12. Oxelheim, Lars & Rafferty, Michael, 2004. "On the Static Efficiency of Secondary Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 623, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  13. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
  14. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  15. Sergio Da Silva & Raul Matsushita & Ricardo Giglio, 2008. "The relative efficiency of stockmarkets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(6), pages 1-12.
  16. Khondaker Golam Moazzem & Md. Tariqur Rahman, 2012. "Stabilising the Capital Market of Bangladesh: Addressing the Structural, Institutional and Operational Issues," CPD Working Paper 95, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
  17. Costa Cabral, Nazare, 2010. "Breve guia temático e bibliográfico sobre o estudo da actual crise financeira e económica
    [Short thematic guide to the study of current financial and economic crisis]
    ," MPRA Paper 20743, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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