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Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Frankel, Jeffrey A
Chinn, Menzie D
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Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that, in contrast to earlier studies involving developed country exchange rates, variation in the risk premium is a quantitatively significant factor in movements of the forward discount. However, changes in expectations also have a substantial effect. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics .
Volume (Year): 1 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 136-44
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:1:y:1993:i:2:p:136-44Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576
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For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983.
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Other versions: Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986.
"Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
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Other versions: Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984.
"An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
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Other versions: Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations ,"
American Economic Review ,
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Lewis, Karen K, 1989.
"Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange ,"
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American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
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Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations ,"
NBER Working Papers
1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989.
"Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets ,"
Research Paper
8918, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990.
"Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market ,"
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Other versions: A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989.
"Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets ,"
Quarterly Review ,
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Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium? ,"
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Other versions: Fama, Eugene F., 1984.
"Forward and spot exchange rates ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006.
"Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us? ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Other versions:
Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006.
"Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us? ,"
Working Papers
102006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
[Downloadable!] Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006.
"Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us? ,"
Working Papers
06.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
[Downloadable!] Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009.
"Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us? ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999.
"The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate ,"
MPRA Paper
9775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Jeffrey A. Frankel & Chudozie Okongwu, 1995.
"Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence ,"
NBER Working Papers
5156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998.
"Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity ,"
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Alina Piciorea, 2008.
"Forward Premium Puzzle: Futures Contracts Evidence and Speculation Strategies ,"
Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series
8, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
[Downloadable!]
Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2007.
"The Forward Premium Puzzle: new evidence from futures contracts ,"
DNB Working Papers
125, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
[Downloadable!]
Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995.
"More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests ,"
International Finance
9508003, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1996.
"Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity ,"
Working Papers
014, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
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Other versions: Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000.
"The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey ,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998.
"Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise ,"
Working Papers
98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Young-Kyu Moh & Nelson C. Mark, 2004.
"Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Parity in the Dollar-DM Market ,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
762, Econometric Society.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005.
"Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle ,"
MPRA Paper
6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: John A. Carlson & C. L. Osler, 1999.
"Determinants of current risk premiums ,"
Staff Reports
70, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
[Downloadable!]
David Gruen & Marianne Gizycki, 1993.
"Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring? ,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia.
[Downloadable!]
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