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Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say

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MacDonald, Ronald

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Abstract

This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which exploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk aversion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short-term expectations are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer term expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time-varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous expectations. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 69-100
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:1:p:69-100

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  1. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," Working Papers 2009_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  5. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-11, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-376, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-321, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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