Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data
AbstractUsing Consensus Economics survey data on experts’ expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the JPY/USD and the GBP/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional expected variance of the change in the real exchange rate, agents’ real NMP in assets and a constant composite risk aversion coefficient, as suggested by a two-country portfolio asset pricing model. The expected variance depends on the past values of the observed variance and the unobservable real NMP is estimated as a state variable using the Kalman filter methodology. We found that the trends of our estimated horizon-specific NMPs are consistent with the ones of the observed short term aggregate NMPs calculated using the U.S. Treasury International Capital System dataset. Moreover, we show that the ex-post premia tend to adjust toward the ex-ante values, suggesting that experts’ beliefs provide a relevant information to the market. These results bring new responses to the difficulties reported by the widespread ex-post risk premium literature and enhances the usefulness of survey data in modeling the risk premium.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
Volume (Year): 23 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin
Risk premium; Foreign exchange market; International asset pricing model; Survey data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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- Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
- Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
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