Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

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Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

Author Info

David K. Backus
Allan W. Gregory
Chris I. Telmer

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Abstract

We examine the behavior of forward and spot exchange rates from the perspective of the representative agent theory of asset pricing. We verify that with moderate risk aversion and time-additive preferences the theory accounts for very little (by our calculations, less than 5 percent) of the variability of expected returns from currency speculation observed for major currencies versus the U.S. dollar. With strong habit persistence, however, the theory can account for one-half to two-thirds of the estimated standard deviation of expected returns from currency speculation. Hansen-Jagannathan bounds imply that the variability of expected returns on currencies, like the equity premium, requires a great deal of variability in intertemporal marginal rates of substitution, some of which is delivered by habit persistence.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 792.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1990
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:792

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Article
- Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

Cited by:
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Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
- Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
James M. Nason, 1991. "The permanent income hypothesis when the bliss point is stochastic," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Nason, J.M., 1991. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis when the Bliss Point is Stochastic," UBC Departmental Archives 91-18, UBC Department of Economics.
Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2007. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_6, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2005. "Time-varying risk, interest rates and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Working Papers 627, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
Luca Benati, . "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Hollifield, Burton & Yaron, Amir, 2001. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," Working Papers 01-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1992. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "New Evidence on the Forward Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 77, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
Paul Soderlind & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Soderlind, P & Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Papers 621, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1556, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 142, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1992. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1994. " Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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